India’s Ticking Demographic Bomb
April 24th, 2007
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In an article in The Economic and Political Weekly, noted demographer Ashish Bose argues that India’s demographic dividend can easily turn into a demographic bomb. By 2026, of the total estimated population increase of 381 million, share of workers in the 15-59 age group would be 83%. Professor Bose points out that providing employment to such a huge workforce would be a challenge, and failure to do so can be a source of instability.
More ominous is Professor Bose’s warning of continuing backwardness of the BIMARU state. The population of these state would expand at a much faster rate than that of the more developed South Indian states. Plagued as they are by lack of economic development, the burgeoning population would only put further pressure on their limited resources.
Finally, Professor Basu points that if the expansion of the Parliament seats currently scheduled for 2026 is not further postponed, the political influence of the BIMARU states particularly of U.P and Bihar would further expand.
This is doubly dangerous. First, it would reward states for their dismal demographic record and would tend to disenfranchise those who have done much better in this regard. Second, it would lead to further politicization of the BIMARU states. I am of the firm conviction that the economic development in U.P and Bihar is intricately linked to their depoliticization. Political empowerment has become so important these states that it has managed to put everything else including economic development on the back burner. Every provincial leader in these state considers himself a contender for Delhi’s throne. Since winning the local elections is only a mean to achieve greater political power, the average politician neither has any stake in local development nor any hesitation in winning elections by all means fair and foul. So ingrained is the lure of lal-batti in their collective psyche that it triumphs over all other means of empowerment. Giving them greater political power is almost guaranteed to lead to their further improvishment.
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